Seminar Abstract
Shih Ching Fu

Title: Incorporating spatial factors into epidemic modelling

With recent virus epidemics such as foot and mouth disease in
the United Kingdom and the threat of using viruses such as smallpox as 
biological warfare agents, the monitoring of outbreaks is gaining importance 
for governments and public health officials. The modelling of a phenomenon 
such as virus spread helps us to understand, predict, and hopefully 
control that phenomenon's behaviour.

The majority of existing epidemic models utilize differential equations and
do not take into account spatial factors such as population density. These 
models assume populations are closed and well mixed, that is, host numbers are 
constant and individuals are free to move wherever they wish. When trying
to devise more realistic models it makes sense to incorporate spatial 
parameters that reflect the heterogeneous environment found in nature. An 
alternative to using deterministic differential equations is to use 
two-dimensional cellular automata. 

In this seminar I will present the initial results generated from a cellular 
automata epidemic model and discuss the advantages such a model has over
existing non-spatial models. I argue that although conceptually very simple, 
cellular automata models can effectively represent the spatial elements of an
epidemics and warrant further investigation.